F2.1.2. Measures to reduce risks of reversals

F2.1.2. Measures to reduce risks of reversals

F2.1.2. Measures to reduce risks of reversals

Viet Nam’s Country Safeguards Framework (CSF) identifies three main categories of actions or measures to reduce risks of reversals:

  • Analysing the risk of reversals of emissions reductions/removals;
  • Selecting and designing REDD+ policies and measures (PaMs) taking into account the risk of reversals, and putting in place buffers and other risk management measures. This may involve consideration of the long-term financial and ecological sustainability of planned PaMs, legal and regulatory frameworks, and potential changes in environmental conditions and the comprehensive analysis of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation;
  • Designing and operating a National Forest Monitoring System (NFMS) contributing to detecting and providing information on reversals. See SIS F.2.1.3 for more information.

Analysing risks of reversals:

Environmental and social co-benefits and risks of the National REDD+ Programme (NRAP)[1] policies and measures were assessed in 2017, and co-benefit enhancement and risk mitigation measures suggested.[2] Some identified risks related to reversals included:

  • Ongoing loss of natural forests, high carbon value forests or forests that perform other important ecosystem services may occur;
  • Investments, incentives and potential higher markets prices in agriculture could make crop production more effective or attractive, and contribute to deforestation over the long term or at scale;
  • Forest land allocation and collaborative forest management approaches could lead to adverse effects on forest protection and legitimise unsustainable use of forests and forest lands;
  • Non-timber forest product business models could result in over-exploitation and/or degradation and/or deforestation (e.g. spread of bamboo across other types of natural forest);
  • Risks of fire and pest/disease outbreaks in plantations;
  • Lack of maintenance or abandonment of coastal forest plantations on lands that are classified as protection or special use forest, and inundation in Melaleuca forests.

Mitigation measures were suggested from the analysis of environmental and social co-benefits and risks of the NRAP PaMs, including: (1) green financial mechanisms should include clear environmental safeguards such as criteria and procedures for screening proposed investments, (2) a monitoring and traceability system should be developed to reduce forest conversion to agriculture, (3) inventories should be conducted on the baseline status of forests to be allocated, (4) sustainable forest management practices and certification for plantations should be promoted, (5) practical guidelines for afforestation/reforestation and plantation management at site-level should be developed, including site/species selection, plantation design, pest control, fire prevention, etc.

 

At subnational level, the MARD Guidelines for the development of Provincial REDD+ Action Plans (PRAPs)[3] provide direction on environmental and social benefit and risk assessment of provincial REDD+ PaMs and aim to address the risk of reversals, including through integrated planning, strengthening of forest law enforcement, and continuously improving the NFMS. As noted in SIS E2.1.2, 22 provinces have completed PRAPs, including undertaking benefit and risk assessment.

 

Assessments of environmental and social benefits and risks of REDD+ PaMs have also been carried out through the Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA)[4] during the development of the FCPF Emission Reductions Program (FCPF ERP) in the North Central Coast Region of Viet Nam, and through the assessment of Environmental and Social Considerations for the Project for Sustainable Forest Management in the Northwest Watershed Area (SUSFORM-NOW) funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

 

The FCPF ERP identified risks of reversals from fire, disease, illegal logging, unplanned agricultural expansion, infrastructure development, or climate change (due to changes in temperature and precipitation and increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events), ranging from low to medium risk. Mitigation strategies to address these risks include: participatory land-use planning through the FCPF ERP’s Adaptive and Collaborative Management Approach (ACMA); support for non-expansion of dams and roads in forest areas; improved accountability and ‘ownership’ over forest areas through collaborative management; and improved technical support and appropriate site and species selection for tree plantations.

For the proposed LEAF Program, reversal risks will be included in discussions on potential risks and benefits, and have been identified in the TREES Registration Document.[5]

Design of REDD+ PaMs and other mechanisms:

The NRAP, PRAPs and REDD+ programs like the FCPF ERP have conducted comprehensive analysis of direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and forest degradation and designed interventions to consider risks of reversals:

  • The design of the NRAP (2017) has included processes to help reduce the risks of reversals, including assessment of the direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and degradation, clearly linking policies and measures to these drivers, and incorporation of measures to reduce risks of reversals in the selection and design of policies and measures. A study was carried out in 2016 to identify the various strategic considerations for REDD+ implementation.[6] The analysis focused on understanding the direct and indirect drivers and barriers causing forest and land use change, including consideration of a broad range of social, political, and economic factors, and how these factors are inter-linked. This also included design of a preliminary set of policies and measures linked to the drivers and barriers.
  • The NRAP includes a number of PaMs which contribute to addressing the risk of reversals, including: (1) strengthen law enforcement on forest protection to control deforestation and forest degradation; (2) forest monitoring, including participatory monitoring; (3) Coordinate and integrate the forestry investment programs according to the plan for forest protection and reforestation as well as agriculture production improvement for improved livelihood of local communities, especially forest dependent communities.[1]
  • The FCPF ERP identifies six drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the North Central Coast region;[4] and the 1st Emissions Reductions Monitoring Report[7] includes information (section 1,2) on the main underlying drivers in the accounting area, including: (1) Planned conversion of mainly poor natural forests to rubber and other agricultural land uses; (2) Planned conversion of mostly poor natural forests to tree plantations; (3) Unplanned conversion of forests due to encroachment; (4) Impacts from hydropower and infrastructure development; (5) Illegal and legal logging; and (6) Other minor causes. The Monitoring Report states that the drivers of deforestation and degradation were addressed and reduced compared to the period of 2016-2017. However, the conversion of forests to infrastructure development (road, power lines, etc.) has increased, leading to an overall forest loss between 2018-2019.[7]

Reversal management mechanisms have also been developed for ER programs:

  • Key actions to minimize reversals are listed in the FCPF ER Monitoring Report (section 7)[7] and reversal management mechanisms have also been developed, including a buffer into which emission reductions (ERs) can be deposited to cover future reversals in the Accounting Area, managed on behalf of the Carbon Fund. This follows the relevant Carbon Fund Methodological Framework Criteria and ERP Buffer Guidelines.[4] The overall risk of reversal is deemed 25%.

  • For the South Central and Central Highlands ER (LEAF) Program in the South Central Coast and Central Highlands regions, as noted above, the fixed rate deducted for buffer pool contribution for reversal is -10% and the anticipated reversal buffer pool contribution is (25% - 10%) = 15%.[5]

 

[1] Decision 419/QD-TTg dated April 5, 2017 on NRAP; and Annex: Policies and Measures for REDD+ implementation for period of 2017 – 2020

[2] Summary of assessment of potential benefits and risks arising from the NRAP: https://sis.kiemlam.gov.vn/web/guest/library/-/document_library/iXuUrTYhhdKx/view_file/75422

[3] MARD Decision No. 5414/2015/QD-BNN-TCLN on the approval of guidelines for the development of Provincial REDD+ Action Plans

[4] FCPF ERP Document (2018): https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/system/files/documents/00_FINAL%20ER-PD%20Viet Nam%205%20Jan%202018__0.pdf

[5] TREES Registration Document: https://vnff.vn/en-us/leaf-program/mmr/registration-document

[6] Richard McNally, Vu Tan Phuong, Nguyen The Chien, Pham Xuan Phuong, Nguyen Viet Dung (2016) Issues and options: support for the revision of Viet Nam’s National REDD+ Programme (NRAP), 2016-2020

[7] FCPF ERP First Monitoring Report (2023): https://vnff.vn/en-us/erpa-program/mmrs/mmr1